* * What then?

It goes without saying that the coronavirus pandemic has been massively disruptive to the lives of people across the land, and indeed around the world. Illness, death, job losses, company closures, and widespread misery have accompanied this microscopic killer wherever it has reached. It is surreal, the damage.

As difficult as it may be to envision now, someday this will pass. As with all prior pandemics, one day the virus will lose its ability to kill, and life, what’s left of it, will go on.

It’s my nature to think about the future, and so I thought I’d share some prognostications with you, especially as they relate to our area, specifically its economy, and guess at what we might expect.

Some caveats:

First, I assure you I’m not being punitive towards you or your business or anybody. The virus is indiscriminate in who it infects and sickens. But like everything else in nature, the impact is greater in some realms than others.

Second, these are only guesses. Predicting is difficult, the old joke goes, especially the future. So any or all of this may prove wrong. If anything, I hope this gives you something to think about, as it has for me in organizing it to share with you.

Third, this may sound overly pessimistic. But for gosh sakes; it’s a pandemic. The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed tens of millions. Pandemics are frightfully serious.

So let’s begin.

The pandemic is not over, indeed it has just begun, in disrupting our lives. As I write, the national infections and death tolls continue to rise steeply, so steeply it isn’t even worth documenting where we are today, as it will be greater by the time you read this. The spread of this pandemic will only slow through natural resistance, meaning that most people have already contracted it (and survived), or there is a vaccine, or both. Neither case appears on the near horizon, or forecast to occur in less than 12 months. This is a long emergency.

Our only defense at this point is social distancing, which is why most of the country, and indeed most of the world, is in lockdown. Any hope of a short lockdown is mere wishful thinking, as the virus never sleeps.

Meanwhile, the lockdown has been massively disruptive to business, with thousands forced to close and layoffs of employees in the millions nationwide. In a capitalistic system, profit is imperative, and for most businesses large and small, profit is a small number tucked between income and expense. When income is slashed, sometimes by 50% or even 100%, businesses fail.

So the pressure to re-open the economy is staggering.

In another 6-10 weeks, warmer weather and social distancing measures may (and I say “may” because we don’t know yet about its viral seasonality) be successful in slowing the spread. Governments may mandate a re-opening of the economy. However, towards fall, the disease, with a wider foothold, will come back with a vengeance, forcing another, even more prolonged shutdown.

Businesses most affected are those that cater to gatherings of people. Restaurants. Bars. Conference Centers. Breweries and wineries. Hotels. Theaters. Sports facilities and gyms. And of course, schools.

Between Virginia Tech, Radford University, and New River Community College, the New River Valley has the highest concentration of higher education in the state. Neither the colleges nor the public schools will re-open in the fall, and if they do, they will close again as the disease renews its spread. Distance learning will become the norm, and administrators, educators, and kids will be forces to adapt to that new normal. Parents will adjust to the constant presence of their school age children.

There will likely be no football season this fall. There may be some games held without live audiences, people only watching on TV, but these will cease when players start getting sick – there is no social distancing on a football field! The local economic impact of tens of thousands of fans arriving on multiple weekends is significant, and that will vanish. Almost every business that relies on tourism will be smashed.

As restaurants and retail stores whither, supermarkets and delivery companies will thrive. Even now, as more people eat at home, supermarkets are the busiest establishments in the region, their work complicated by hoarding. Online retailers are reporting brisk sales.

However, as the weeks turn to months, they’ll suffer too, because their customers, many long furloughed, will have less money to spend. Personal and small business bankruptcies will spread like the virus itself.

Many jobs that we’ve traditionally seen as “entry level” or “menial” and compensated accordingly, are now proving to be essential to sustain us. Store clerks, hospital orderlies, nursing home custodians, delivery drivers, and countless others will be seen in a new light, and because of their importance and risk to infection in serving us, will demand better wages and protection.

People who have successfully been able to work at home may never fully return to their offices.

Civic and social clubs, already struggling to attract new members and now unable to meet, may wither and collapse.

Dating and romance will change forever in ways I can’t even speculate, as aspiring lovers learn that intimacy with a new partner may kill them. On the other hand, married couples may provide a birth rate spike months from now. What better to do after the 8^th watching of Outlander?

Meanwhile, the virus will be lurking, waiting for the next opportunity to re-infect or worse, to mutate. And researchers frantically seek a vaccination.

We live in interesting times. Good luck to you and your family, and please stay at home and WASH YOUR HANDS.