* * Rick and I go for a ride

Rick and I went for a drive. More accurately, I took my younger brother Rick for a motorcycle ride. His idea.

Rick lives in Northern Virginia but is in town because our dad, Bob, is in the final chapter of his life, lying in his bed immobile in a morphine-induced coma from which he will not recover. He likely will have passed by the time you read this.

I hand Rick protective riding gear to don. You can’t be too careful on a motorcycle. Appropriate gear makes a huge difference when (Notice I say “when” and not “if.”) you fall.

I own a modern wireless communicator that allows driver and rider to conduct full conversations. Some of my best, most memorable conversations are with my passengers. It’s an amazing world we live in, with technologies like this.

He hops aboard, carefully following my instructions, reminders he may have forgotten since our prior ride years earlier. Recent medical issues have kept him from riding. I’ve been riding since I was 14, but he’s never owned a motorcycle, so I always drive. Nice that he trusts his safety to me. I purposefully drive slower and more cautiously than usual.

Rick’s a bright guy, with a business degree and an MBA. Our topics of conversation are of mutual interest, on this occasion much about our national political state and the challenges humankind faces in the future.

We swoop through Merrimac with its curvy road, getting accustomed to the lean of the bike. On Prices Fork Road, I comment on the stiff wind that challenges me to keep the bike in our lane.

He’s been reading about the acceleration of change, how the rapid advance of technology is already affecting millions of lives, and how that will only increase in the future. He tells me that humans seem limited in our ability to process change and that artificial intelligence is a threat to human survival. “How?” I ask. He opines that once computers are able to think and reason for themselves, they will realize that there are too many people for the good of the planet and ultimately themselves, and begin plotting to eliminate this human pestilence. He says computer scientists are now examining ways to instill into the “genetic code” of artificial intelligence the value of humanity and compassion in the hope they might spare us.

We take Peppers Ferry Road westbound into Fairlawn and then Dublin where we go north on SR-100 over dramatic Cloyd’s Mountain into Giles County. The wind remains brisk, especially on top of the mountain, but the temperature is mild and we’re comfortable. Several days of rain leave the road wet in places, but it’s not slick.

We talk about how minds work, about the theory of confirmation bias, the “backfire effect,” the tendency to find, favor, and remember information that fits our preexisting beliefs. Ever hear someone say something that is demonstrably false, and when you provide them with contradictory facts, instead of accepting their error, they become even more entrenched? That’s the backfire effect, and it’s why we’ll have increasing difficulty as a species adapting to the massive changes underway.

For example, robots and computers are already destroying jobs at unfathomable rates. By some estimates, within a generation almost half the jobs today currently done by people might be done by machines. Self-driving vehicles are already on the road, and several million Americans now make their living behind the wheel. What will become of these displaced workers? Where will they receive the income needed to procure life’s essentials? Where will they gain the emotional satisfaction from contributing to society through work?

These are massive, game-changing issues, which will require our best and brightest thinkers to prepare us. We agree that instead, we’ve selected mainly imbeciles to govern us.

I turn the Honda onto Eggleston Road and enjoy the sweeping curves, noting that we have the road entirely to ourselves. Zero traffic. He comments that NoVA is never like that.

Over the bridge crossing the New River, I slow to take in the dramatic view. Dad’s soul has already departed, and we know how much he loved this river. Our family had a decades-long good run at life until that was shattered by Rick’s diagnosis of pancreatic cancer two years ago. Somehow, he beat it! “Luck” is not part of our family lexicon; we reason he survived a disease that kills over 90% of its victims by a combination of fabulous doctors, aggressive treatment, a knowledgeable and supportive wife, good friends and family, and otherwise good health. But we now take not a moment for granted.

He asks me to drive him up Mountain Lake, where we breeze up the steep curves on the “backside” road, then circle the hotel so he can see what’s left of the lake, and then down the main road, with its fabulous views. The scene looks abiding, but we both know better. Because change swirls around us every day. 

* * That money never trickles down

Chances are good there’s a road near you that needs to repaving. Our governments never seem to have the money to maintain our infrastructure. Hold that thought for a moment.

I recently published my eighth book, Chasing the Powhatan Arrow. The subtitle is, A Travelogue in Economic Geography, and I wrote about the communities along the former route of that iconic passenger train, focusing on how they’ve fared in the 50 years since the last running. And I’ve reached some conclusions on why some places are more economically successful than others.

I’ll illustrate by the example of two states, and how their divergent paths have produced divergent results. Let’s go to Kansas and California. But first, let’s back up a couple of generations.

Ronald Reagan was elected president largely on his economic principle that he called “Trickle-down economics,” and economists call “Supply side economics.” The theory was that by cutting taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, they’ll have more money and it will trickle down to the rest of us. His candidate rival, later his Vice President, George H. W. Bush called it “Voodoo economics,” and he was correct; it has never proven to work. In my estimation, it is the cruelest myth perpetrated on the American people in my lifetime. Yet due to Reagan’s popularity, it is still accepted by millions of politicians and citizens.

No state has embraced the idea to a greater degree than Kansas. Their conservative Republican dominated legislature and Governor, Sam Brownback, have spent the last several years slashing taxes. When Brownback outlined his plan 5 years ago, he said the tax cuts would benefit everybody and would be a “shot of adrenaline to the heart,” of Kansas’ economy. That never happened. Rather than providing the economic stimulus those legislators sought, the cuts have devastated the state budget, having predictable, tragic results on all the institutions that rely on state government spending, especially public schools. In March, the state supreme court decreed that the state was underfunding schools by hundreds of millions annually. Class sizes are up, teacher pay is down, and retiring or quitting teachers are not replaced. Art and music classes are eliminated. Sports programs are curtailed. Schools are scraping by, rather than envisioning and planning for the future.

But there’s more: Kansas’ job growth is among the worst in the nation. In 2014, Brownback pledged his tax plan would produce 100,000 new jobs, yet fewer than 13,000 have occurred.

Meanwhile, everything conservatives have fought to do, California has done the opposite. California is one-eighth of the nation’s population and one-seventh of its overall economy. California alone is the number 6 economy in the world, encroaching on number 5 United Kingdom.

It provided a high-tax, high-regulation, high-minimum-wage model, promoting clean energy, government accountability, and protection for immigrants and minorities. No state has more actively discouraged fossil fuels and carbon emissions. And its economy is booming, creating jobs faster than any state in the nation! Democratic governor Jerry Brown considers immigrants to be a major reason for the state’s success.

California’s economy is being driven by a who’s who of America’s most innovative and dynamic companies: Apple, Tesla, HP, Cicso, Google, Facebook. Oracle. Intel. These companies benefit from the education provided at California’s outstanding secondary and collegiate school system. And their high gas taxes and vehicle registration fees are providing money to improve infrastructure. California is successful because of its high taxes and strict regulations, not in spite of them.

When companies look to expand, would they choose a state where their kids receive substandard education, the drinking water is polluted, and the roads are crumbling? No. High taxes are ultimately good for business and the economy overall because the money spent to teach the kids and repave the roads is more readily circulated throughout the economy.

I’ve heard people argue, “I’ve never been hired for a job by a poor person.” This is a spurious argument, lacking in reality. Sure, initially when rich people fund a start-up business, they hire people. But they will soon fail if they don’t have customers, consumers with money to spend. Public spending puts money in motion.

Let’s face it: everybody hates taxes. But the fact is that local, state, and federal government taxation and investment in roads, water systems, police, fire protection, and schools pay off by building supportive ecosystems and circulating money throughout the economy.

Let’s stop electing people who don’t understand this.

And maybe we can get our roads repaved.

* * Self-driving cars will change everything

I sit seething, waiting impatiently at the insanely busy Christiansburg intersection of N. Franklin and Cambria Streets. Is there anything most of us face on a daily basis more soul-sapping than sitting in traffic? And yet we collectively waste uncountable hours and gallons of fuel each year waiting for the light to turn green. For better or worse, I think the future of traffic, of driving, and even of how we develop our communities, is destined to change radically in the next few years. 

We’re staring into the headlights of an era of self-driving vehicles. There will be several more years of testing and refinement, then gradual introduction into the market, and then significant and perhaps eventual total penetration. These will be phased in as technologies evolve, but I’m more convinced every day these innovations will become widespread realities at dizzying rates, providing unfathomable disruption and opportunities. I’m guessing the ramifications of a complete change-over to self-driving cars will radically transform virtually every aspect of our lives, from our cities, our schools, offices, stores, homes, and even the roads themselves.

Automobile utilization in America is now only 5 to 7 percent, meaning that most cars are only doing anything useful for just over an hour each day. It is likely that millions of Americans will decide they don’t need a car at all, as one belonging to a fleet service can merely be summoned to take them where they want to go. These folks won’t have the costs or maintenance responsibilities of ownership. Ride-sharing companies like Uber – what we currently call “taxis” – will multiply to capture that emerging market. Consider that most of what you pay to ride a taxi goes to the driver, and that if the car doesn’t have one, the cost will plummet. People justify the vast expense of a personal vehicle because of the instant access and mobility. But if rides in self-driven cars are cheap and readily available, why have your own?

All those industries that cater to private car ownership will diminish or be eliminated. Cars will be sold in fleets to the ride-sharing companies, so we won’t have the need for nearly as many car salespeople or dealerships. There will be no rental car companies and fewer mechanics, car washes, valets, insurance companies, and loan companies.

Driverless cars will also reduce the need for massive parking lots and garages at shopping centers, schools, and workplaces, because the car will simply drop you off and go to the next customer. As these fleets of cars owned by the car-sharing services return to “home bases” after busy daylight hours, massive parking lots will emerge at those places rather than at individual destinations. That will revolutionize how we use immeasurable amounts of land currently paved for temporary storage of cars.

Because cars are in more constant use, overall utilization will increase, further reducing fuel consumption and pollution. It is possible that fleets of self-driving cars will be on the road servicing clients at 25 percent or even 50 percent utilization. This would be utterly transformational for the entire auto industry. The dealerships will become superfluous because manufacturers will sell to the services rather than everyday consumers. Sales overall will drop because fewer cars, traveling more miles, will be needed. Today’s $20 trillion worldwide asset capitalization in conventional cars, with only a miniscule utilization rate, makes little sense to continue if this alternative exists. Young people may never bother to learn to drive, get a license, or own a car. Already some developed countries have reached their zenith in per-capita car ownership.

And cars that drive themselves will dramatically increase the mobility of children, elderly, and disabled.

Self-driving vehicles will self-select routes for maximum efficiency based upon regional traffic, as they’ll all be communicating with each other, monitoring possible congestion and other problems. And they’ll communicate and cooperate with other transportation options such as trains, airplanes, and even hyper-local solutions such as scooters and e-bikes to get travelers that last mile or two.

Once self-driving cars become commonplace, will ordinary human-driven cars be banned? Will I still be allowed to ride my motorcycle?

“I’ll never give up my car,” you might be screaming, before I ask you the last time you bought camera film or a typewriter ribbon.

The light turns green, I press the accelerator pedal, and my car rolls forward, continuing my journey. We don’t know how this will all play out. Like other massive changes in the way we do things, we simply cannot predict whether we’ll see rosy or dark outcomes. Nobody can predict the future, but the people, companies, and communities that get this right will have a huge advantage. I’m looking forward to it. 

* * United in Tragedy

For most of us around here, April 16, 2007 was a day we’ll never forget. The tenth anniversary of the tragedy at Virginia Tech gave us all the opportunity to reflect and remember, to honor the 32 Hokies we lost that awful day.

Being part of a Tech Legacy Family – my father went to Tech, I went to Tech, my younger brother went to Tech, my wife got her doctorate at Tech, and my daughter went to Tech – it hit me particularly hard. My wife, daughter and I participated in the Remembrance Run for 32. Any notion that Hokie Nation would forget about that day or those lost was amply vanquished, as officials estimated that over 16,000 people participated. Many of them were in grade school when it happened.

Sadly, our community isn’t the only one that has dealt with gun violence on a massive scale.

A few days later, my wife and I hit the road for a mini-vacation in Charleston, South Carolina. I’d never been to that historic city and always wanted to go, especially to visit Fort Sumter on an island in the Charleston harbor where the Civil War’s first shots were fired. After our tour boat returned from the tiny island where the fort is located, we found ourselves in the midst of a fascinating conversation.

Before our tour we walked towards the main business district past the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church, often referred to as Mother Emanuel, the oldest black congregation in the southern states. Founded around 1817, in its 200 years, it has become one of the most influential churches for blacks in America. In spite of that, I’d never heard of it, and probably never would have, except that on June 17, 2015, nine people were shot and killed there. The perpetrator was a 21-year old white supremacist, motivated in his madness through hatred.

The conversation I mentioned was with a volunteer at the Aquarium next to the boat dock. She gave us a short ride in a golf cart to save us a few steps. She was a youthful retiree from a career teaching second grade in a nearby school. Her husband had played football for Clemson decades earlier and they were fans, so she recognized the VT logo on our hats.

I asked about the AME church and the shooting there. She knew about the shooting at Tech, and we reminded her that it happened 10 years earlier. She asked if people still remembered it. I told her about the 16,000 people who attended the Remembrance Run. I told her that the sentiment around Tech and Blacksburg has never wavered. We are Virginia Tech. We will never forget.

The AME church, as part of a pre-emancipation South, has a tumultuous history. And like most Southern cities, Charleston has struggled to bring the races together in our common humanity.

There were many differences in the situations, at Tech and the AME church. At the church, the nine people were shot simply because they were black and the shooter was an avowed racist. He was soon captured and arrested, and has since been convicted of 33 federal hate crime charges and has been sentenced to death. At Tech, the shooter was motivated by his own delusions and was the last victim of his own malevolence. In a way, it seems like a good thing that his suicide put an instant closure to that aspect of the horror, that survivors and victims’ families never had to suffer through his capture, trials, and aftermath.

She said about their murderer, “He was methodical. He attended a prayer meeting with the victims. He said later they treated him so well, he almost decided not to shoot them. Almost.”

She said she was amazed at the reaction of her community, the outpouring of love and support for those affected by their shooting. She said that in the midst of the grieving and sadness, it had the city-wide effect of bringing everyone together in a way she’d never seen before. How everybody had been just a little bit kinder, more patient, and more aware of our shared destiny since then.

We sat there, total strangers moments earlier, moist-eyed, united in tragedy, hoping that nothing like this will ever happen again in America. But fully resigned to the notion that it almost inevitably will.

* * Giving the gift of walking

Most of us know someone who has lost a leg, typically through an accident or complications of diabetes. The World Health Organization estimates there are around 35 MILLION, and many are children. That’s four times the entire population of Virginia! Over 80% of them are in developing nations where they often cannot afford a prosthetic device.

Think about a child never walking again. Michael Mabry and some friends thought about it a lot. Then they decided to do something about it.

“I bought orthotics from a local prosthetic technician, Phil Johnson, three years ago,” Mabry told me. “Phil has been working with orthotics and prosthetics for about 30 years. He told me he had been to Guatemala on a mission trip to try to help a boy he’d heard about who’d lost a leg. When he got there, he fitted the boy with his new leg. The next morning, there were 20 other kids lined up who needed a limb as well.”

Mike and Phil formed an organization in Blacksburg called “Hope to Walk,” to help as many people as they could. Prosthetic legs now on the market are expensive, from $5,000 upwards. They knew to make a real difference they’d need a less expensive alternative, because many of these victims live below the International Poverty Line – making less than $1.90 per day and don’t have any money. They began building legs out of wood, rubber, fiberglass, and PVC pipe, for $80 to $100 each. And they could be made and fitted in poor, remote communities.

The two men met when Mike was a first year medical student at Edward Via School of Osteopathic Medicine. “Logistically, it is difficult to make prosthetic limbs here and then try to deliver to poor countries. We knew we had to think outside of the box. I hadn’t had a particular interest in prosthetics prior, but I’d always had an interest in helping people, especially the poor. I want to empower them.” Mabry said.

I added, “This is the essence of the health care quandary we face. We live in a capitalistic system and companies have to make a profit. But everybody, rich and poor, gets sick. Only the rich can afford treatments for serious illnesses. Others might die prematurely because they don’t have the money. Medicine doesn’t fit well with the capitalistic model.”

He said that the causes can vary from country to country. In war-torn countries, many in Africa and Asia, many of the people were victims of land mines. In other countries, more people suffered from diseases like diabetes or accidents. But the result was the same: millions of people could never find hope to walk again. The solution was lower-cost limbs.

“We simplified the materials, using parts that could be found in those countries. Phil has mechanical skills and learned how to fabricate these limbs. He is an engineer at heart and true learner. We went for simple, affordable, and effective. We can grind the foot to any shape, on the spot. We make 16” pylons, which is the leg shaft of the prosthetic, and can cut to each patient’s specific size. We can cast sockets on the spot as well. So our prosthetics cost from $70 to $94 in parts, instead of thousands. We get the money from fund-raising and donations most often through individuals, churches, and civic clubs.”

The organization is mostly comprised of Christians, but they have no requirements from their recipients. “We tell them we’re there because the Lord sent us and we care about them and He cares about them. We want to love them in a tangible way.

 “It is one thing to take them legs. That’s great. But we are now in the process of developing training programs to teach Hondurans how to manufacture, install, and repair the prosthetics. When that’s done, we can step back and begin training others in a different country. We can empower people in these countries to help themselves.

“This is fun. I never know what direction I’ll be called to go. On our second trip, we fitted a prototype prosthetic to a man named Carlos. It cost less than $80 and did the entire casting and installation in 55 minutes. When we were done, he stood up and walked around for the first time in two years. He just got up and walked! When we saw him walk and saw him smile and saw his family smile, we knew something big was happening! That moment may possibly have set the course for the rest of my working life.

“We’re at a great place. We’re getting more donations and people are joining our team to help us make this a reality. However, this task is very large. In order to help thousands and especially millions, we need more people to get involved and help paddle the ship forward.”

If you’d like to help Michael, Phil and their team with their amazing, life-altering work, visit their website at www.hopetowalk.org.